Saturday, November 6, 2010

Who Will it Be?

Alabama went down to Les Miles and the Bayou Bengals of LSU--not a huge shock, but a little one. With that, my National Championship game prediction needs a replacement. Question is, who?

The nominees are: Auburn, Boise State, TCU and LSU

Auburn: 10-0 and definitely in control to face Oregon for the BCS National Title. The Iron Bowl at Alabama will be the true test for the Tigers--they win that and then the SEC title, they're in. Should 'Bama win, that'd put Auburn down too far, too late in the polls to reach the Title game. These Tigers control their own destiny every bit as much as Oregon--in fact, I'd all but guarantee they jump the Ducks should they win out.

Boise State: Pounded Hawaii by 35 to make it 22 straight wins. Included in that streak is TCU, Oregon, Oregon State and Virginia Tech. The Broncos last loss--a 17-16 let down in the 2008 Holiday Bowl vs. TCU. These Broncos are 2-0 vs. Oregon in the last two seasons too. Keep in mind too Boise State was preseason #3 and have done nothing but embarrass everyone they play, yet the BCS poll allows other teams to jump them. Yeah, I'm kinda scratching my head too.

TCU: Just beat #5 Utah by 40--at Utah. Just like Boise State's only loss in the last three seasons is to TCU in 2008 Holiday Bowl, TCU's only loss in the last three seasons is to Boise State in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Is the Horned Frogs schedule more difficult enough than Boise State's to put them ahead of the same team that beat them less than a year ago and has been ranked ahead of them all season? Tough to say immediately after watching TCU dismantle Utah, but I'd have to give the slight edge to Boise State still.

LSU: Preseason #21, but just knocked off the defending national champs and it's only loss so far was at Auburn by 7. Is a one-loss SEC team more deserving than an undefeated Boise State or TCU? Auburn is all but guaranteed to win the SEC West, so could the LSU Tigers jump to #2 in the BCS rankings without even going to the SEC Championship should Auburn slip up at Alabama? Crazy stuff ahead in the SEC. I say the SEC, as good as it is, is out of the National Title game unless Auburn finishes undefeated, then I'll give them the nod. LSU will likely go to a BCS game though.

The Answer: Undefeated Auburn gets the first nod, Boise State second and TCU third. As for LSU--great season, but there's not much they can do to convince me they deserve a shot at the National Title this year. Auburn has one of the toughest schedules in the country, so should it finish unbeaten, we'll just let them play for the title and brace for controversy impact! If they lose even one game though, how can you take it away from Boise State after all they've proven over the past few years? You can't. Plain and simple. They've done four seasons in a row what is expected of an SEC team for just one season to be deemed worthy of the title game--give them a chance!

That's BCS talk though, here's the latest STB Rankings:
  1. Boise State
  2. Oregon
  3. TCU
  4. Auburn
  5. LSU
  6. Ohio State
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Stanford
  9. Nebraska
  10. Arkansas
  11. Alabama
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Iowa
  14. Mississippi State
  15. Virginia Tech
  16. Michigan State
  17. Utah
  18. Nevada
  19. Oklahoma
  20. Arizona
  21. Florida
  22. Missouri
  23. South Carolina
  24. North Carolina
  25. San Diego State

7 comments:

  1. Sean,
    I see that I proved you wrong in that Lsu beat Alabama and that Alabama has no chance in making it into the bcs championship game.
    I still don't think that Oregon should be ranked where they are. Why should they be ranked over Tcu, auburn, and Boise st? Who, besides Stanford, have they played?
    This is how the top 5 should be in my eyes:
    1. Auburn
    2. Tcu
    3. Boise st
    4. Oregon
    5. Lsu

    This will never happen because college football won't allow it; however, this is how it should be.


    How can anyone or anything go against that by who they have played and how they have performed?

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  2. I agree with your analysis except that Boise State can't be ranked #1 and they haven't embarrassed everyone they've played. They had a brush with death at home when they hosted Virginia Tech on the season opener. Va Tech lost to James Madison the following week. Boise State should have beat them by 30 to have a legitimate argument at a Title game in my opinion.

    TCU is the #1 team in the country right now. No questions. Their dismantled Utah at home (despite the cool uni's and GAY MUSS) and the only team that has even been within 2 thouchdown's was Oregon State. Since then they have been burying their competition with an average margin of victory of 33 points and holding their opposition to less than 8.5 points per game.

    The only other team that you can even make a case for as a #1 team is Auburn, which sucks because I think that TCU is a better team, but Alabama will decide the fate of Auburn. They win, give them a title shot against Boise State. I think TCU is a better team, but Boise State deserves a shot. Their record speaks for itself.

    My rankings are:

    1. TCU
    2. Auburn
    3. Boise State
    4. LSU
    5. Oregon

    Oregon was beaten by Boise State as Sean said the last 2 years so forget about having them above Boise.

    Championship game should be:

    Boise State - Auburn

    Do I think TCU is a better team? Absolutely. Best team in the country. But Boise State should get the nod.

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  3. I'm liking these comments.... I'd have to agree with much of what you both said... Just to clarify though Jake, Boise State beat Virginia Tech in FedEx Field, NOT at Boise... it was a home game for VaTech... who was ranked #6 in the coaches poll and has now climbed all the way back up to #17 in the Coaches poll and #16 in the AP poll...

    ALSO, BOISE STATE BEAT BOTH OREGON AND TCU LAST YEAR AND THEY'RE ONLY MORE EXPERIENCED AND BETTER THIS YEAR... hard to argue either of those teams should be ahead of the Broncos.

    The best point Jake made is that the MUSS is gay and I'd add it should be renamed the WUSS--not only because the student section couldn't be weaker, but also because everyone sitting there is a wuss.

    Guy, I like your rankings except Alabama hasn't played that much tougher a schedule than Oregon, TCU and Boise... Arkansas State? Louisiana Monroe? Chatanooga? That's like three bye weeks for Auburn. They've played 3 ranked opponents, Boise has played 2, Oregon has played 2, TCU has played 2.

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  4. excuse me, AUBURN hasn't played that much tougher a schedule than Oregon, TCU or Boise.

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  5. Sean,

    Auburn has a tougher schedule and has pounded their competition. I think they beat Alabama and put them in the big game with Boise State. I truly do believe that TCU is a better team this year than Boise, but you can't deny them a shot considering their past 3 year record. Not to mention they have basically the same team since they began their reign of terror 3 years ago.

    I don't know why Oregon is even a contender? Who cares if they go undefeated? Boise has hammered them for the past 2 years. Its not even a question in my book. Yes they are a great team, but TCU would dismantle them if they played. Here is what needs to happen.

    Boise and Auburn - National Championship

    Oregon and TCU - Rose Bowl

    Anything other than this would be a disgrace for the BCS and college football. And I only thing Boise gets a shot because of their past 3 year record. TCU is a better team this year. But give Boise a chance. They have more than earned it.

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  6. It should be Tcu and auburn. Sean, I don't know what you are talking about auburn not having a tougher schedule.
    Jake, the better team should play no matter the history. That's what we enjoy and that's why we watch college football throughout the season; to be witnesses of the best teams in college and to find out who truely is the best.

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  7. I didn't say Auburn didn't have a tougher schedule, I said it's not that much tougher... i also said above in the actual blog post that they have one of the toughest schedules in the country... i'm simply saying here, that while TCU and Boise State aren't in the mighty SEC, they still play and defeat quality opponents.

    ReplyDelete